Annual Review of EU’s Gas Market in 2025 and the Outlook for 2026
Two major unknowns pose significant risks to any natural gas outlook: the trajectory of the war in Ukraine and surging AI-driven power demand (with 7 charts).
January, 20, 2026
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In 2025, the EU’s gas market featured:
A modest recovery in gas demand, with a slight year-on-year increase (around 1.2%) after two years of declines.
A substantial rise in LNG imports to compensate for the roughly 15 bcm loss of Russian pipeline gas following the end of the Ukraine transit agreement on December 31, 2024. The United States solidified its role as the leading LNG supplier to the EU, with its share reaching record levels (56.2%).
Lower gas prices relative to 2024, driven by strong LNG inflows and subdued economic growth.
2026 outlook and related issues are discussed below.