An Overview of Russia’s 2023 Gas Exports and Forecast for 2024

Russia has to deal with 5 major issues in the coming months and years

It’s been 22 months since Russia invaded Ukraine. The war’s impact has not been limited to the European gas market due to Russia’s once dominant role as a key supplier, but it has also affected Russia itself, forcing it to find new markets for its gas. In this report, we highlight the changing dynamics of Russia’s gas industry in 2023, and share with readers our short-term outlook for 2024.

Piped Gas to Europe Hits Lowest Levels in Decades

Since the beginning of 2023, Russia has maintained daily gas flows to Europe at 40 million cubic meters (mcm) through Ukraine’s Sudja gas station. This is the maximum daily volume Russia’s energy giant Gazprom can ship through the Sudja on the Russian-Ukrainian border, as the other transit point, “Sokhranivka”, has been offline since last year.

In May 2022, Ukraine's state-owned gas grid operator GTSOU declared force majeure on Russian gas exports to Europe via the Sokhranivka route, forcing Gazprom to rely only on the Sudja. However, this transit point cannot technically handle all Russian gas passing through Ukraine. This has affected gas shipments reaching Europe via Ukraine, and which totalled 14.4 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2023, according to the EOA’s provisional estimates which are based on data from Gazprom and the European Gas Transmission Group, Entsog.  

Meanwhile, the total gas volumes Gazprom has shipped via the TurkStream pipeline – that passes through Turkey— notably increased in 2023 to 12.93 bcm, up from 12.3 bcm in 2022, an uptick of 5.2% year-on-year. Since May 2023, Gazprom has increased daily gas flows through the TurkStream pipeline to 45-46 mcm compared with 36 mcm in the same period last year. 

Gazprom’s gas shipments to Europe (including Ukraine) through those two transit routes (Sudja and TurkStream) significantly dropped by 55% year-on-year, reaching 27.3 bcm, down from 62 bcm last year. This is the lowest annual figure for Gazprom’s exports to Europe in decades, representing only 20% of its exports to Europe in 2021 and prior to the invasion of Ukraine.   

Since the beginning of 2023, the EOA has estimated that Gazprom gas exports to the EU could drop by more than half this year, reaching 26-27 bcm. We also  highlighted the growing significance of Turkey as a transit route for Russian gas to Europe at the expense of Ukraine that played this role for decades prior to the war.

Gas Exports to China Topped Contractual Obligations in 2023