A Picture Worth a Thousand Words: OPEC+ Supply Continues to Decline

OPEC+ production and exports declined in December. Weekly data from Kpler shows that OPEC+ continued to decline in the first two weeks of January.

The primary driver behind the recent drop in OPEC+ supply appears to be Kazakhstan, where crude oil production and exports have fallen sharply. This stems from a series of Ukrainian drone attacks targeting Russian energy infrastructure, including processing facilities, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) marine terminal near Novorossiysk (Russia’s Black Sea port, through which ~80% of Kazakhstan’s oil is exported), and multiple tankers en route to load Kazakh crude.

Is Ukraine behind these attacks? Why would Ukraine target assets affecting Kazakhstan?