2025-2026 Oil Market Outlook: An Update
Oil market data has deteriorated to unprecedented levels, complicating forecasts of supply and demand (with 4 charts)
Oil market data has deteriorated since 2017 due to the US EIA's inability to define "crude" and distinguish actual crude production in shale plays. Crude production numbers include condensates and NGLs, counted as NGLs on the demand side but as crude when blended with Canadian crude for export. This issue is global, as agencies, banks, and consultants rely on EIA data. Sanctions on Iran and Venezuela in 2018 worsened the situation, with both countries using dark fleets to export oil, and Iran ceasing to publish OPEC production data. COVID lockdowns and supply chain issues further degraded data, as employees couldn't update records. Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine and subsequent G7/EU sanctions on Russian crude and petroleum products created the largest dark fleet in history, reducing shipping data credibility. Historically, shipping data was critical to judge the accuracy of government data. Now we use it with doubts!